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Physicians for Human Rights Israel, Despite a World Court order…

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doctors protest
Doctors stage a protest outside the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs in The Hague, demanding an end to the Israeli genocide in Gaza. From a Quds News Network video.

The continuing attack on Gaza hospitals

by PHRI

We have urgently appealed to the Military Advocate General and the Attorney General today in response to Israel’s orders to evacuate all personnel and patients from Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis.

The lack of alternative healthcare responses has prompted the WHO to characterize Israel’s evacuation orders for hospitals in northern Gaza as a “death sentence.”

Additionally, given the collapse of Gaza’s healthcare system, the International Court of Justice has ordered Israel to take immediate action to prevent catastrophe. The current demand to evacuate Nasser Hospital blatantly contradicts the court’s instructions.

 

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After the big party…

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monopolies
Monopolies by Nick Youngson CC BY-SA 3.0 Alpha Stock Images

Starting off Lent with an electronic blues progression

by Eric Jackson

Wednesday:

Will this be a full day off, or just half a day? They buried the sardine about midnight last night and now it’s early afternoon, and my +móvil nanochip has turned into a pumpkin. Just need to charge it, I have a couple of cards, but if I have a cell phone that might charge it I don’t have a cell phone that I know how to use to charge it.

Easy enough to give a standard answer, but this is Ash Wednesday. This morning the guy in Anton to whom I would go was not there. If I go back in, will he be working a half-day?

~~

He was there, and uploaded my dongle stick chip for me. A temporary fix, requiring more inquiries. I dread the thought.

Along the way to Anton and back twice on Ash Wednesday, I noticed the aqueduct crew working, as they did all through Carnival.

Thursday:

Woke up this morning and…

A quarter of a tank of water! More than I have had in weeks!

For one thing, it calms me down about Clark, the wise guy runt, tipping the water bowls with his paw and as often as not ending dumping them out.

I can more easily bathe myself, and the prospect of doing laundry by hand at home, as it has been my general custom to do, brightens considerably.

The truly thorough cleaning of my house? There is promise of sufficient mop water, at least. You’re still dealing with a scruffy old hippie living the rustic life in a guy cave, with too many animals.

~~

Into Penonome, to check about the transition from Claro to +móvil.
,
By THIS monopolistic merger, I can’t get the $46 or so monthly rate for wireless Internet service. Actually they offer no such service at any price. I can keep charging that chip and at a much higher price get comparable connections.

This comes at a time when for me, with a laptop that has a dead battery, free or reasonably inexpensive places to plug in and log onto WiFi are ever fewer. There are hardly any Internet cafes anymore. Last time I went to the InfoPlaza in Anton, the guy said they don’t have WiFi. A lot of places where you can get free WiFi, you can’t find a place to plug in anymore.

I have some Plans C, D and E, but one expectation is that for the time being I am less connected than I want to be. It especially hampers the burning of the midnight and pre-dawn oil.

The more long-term solution is going to have to be installing StarLink. I expect that this will entail the construction of a tower. I hope that it does not entail the cutting of my majestic bamboo stand, but SOME cutting and use of that material is definitely called for, no matter the Internet connectivity issue.

Anyway, now to get down to brass tacks about dealing with the apartheid emerald mining heir’s competition from above and abroad.

As the drought eases a bit, rampaging puppies knocking over the water bowl becomes less of an issue. Photo by your editor. Wanna adopt a cute puppy?
 

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Khorovytska & Willaert, Getting Ukraine through the winter

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Ukrainian kid
A Ukrainian kid, displaced by the war, proudly resists through the winter. Adobe stock photo by Michele Ursi.

The international community should amplify Ukrainian voices and recognize the urgency of their situation as the second anniversary of the Russian invasion approaches.

Now is the time for global solidarity
to help Ukraine survive the winter

by Jan Willaert & Liana Khorovytska — Common Dreams

As the spotlight on Ukraine dwindles, individuals and families are still fighting to survive the perpetual terror they’re experiencing. The two-year mark of the Ukraine war is coming up at the end of the month, just as the coldest period of winter blankets the region.

Citizens are facing renewed Russian attacks and the daunting challenge of securing suitable shelter to endure the frigid weather. As the Country Director and the Regional Director of CORE’s (Community Organized Relief Effort) Ukraine response team, we are working tirelessly to rebuild and assist communities throughout the country this winter.

One only has to look back to last year’s harsh winter to understand what residents face. Ukraine confronted significant challenges as local communities grappled with severe cold temperatures. Thousands of families were living in makeshift shelters after devastating attacks displaced them from their homes. Russian forces then exacerbated this humanitarian crisis by targeting essential civilian infrastructure that kept people safe and warm in the frigid cold.

The people of Ukraine face the dire challenge of enduring the ongoing conflict while braving freezing temperatures and heavy snowfall.

In response to these pressing needs, CORE has delivered support to “Invincibility Centers” established by the government in eight regions of Ukraine, which covered more than 100,000 affected people and are continuing to do so this year. These centers were designed to equip communities for winter by supplying crucial resources like food, water, firewood, and other necessities. Public buildings, such as schools, have been transformed into habitable shelters, offering much-needed relief to the affected Ukrainians, and will continue to get upgraded this winter.

In addition to supporting the upgrading of Invincibility Centers, CORE is zeroing in on critical aspects of community resilience, focusing on Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) systems, upgrading bomb shelters for schools, refurbishing collective centers, and supplying construction materials for individuals whose homes were bombed. With many people returning to damaged homes—particularly the elderly—providing access to heat, hot water, and gas for cooking is vital to their survival. Cash assistance for rental support for internally displaced persons (IDPs) is also available.

Access to clean water and sanitary facilities during the winter is paramount, as central boiling stations distribute water that helps heat houses and keep people warm. Last year, Russian attacks targeted water supply and energy infrastructure, leading to blackouts, with millions still displaced today. Given the persistent threat, especially to civilian infrastructure, these Invincibility Centers are vital.

The people of Ukraine face the dire challenge of enduring the ongoing conflict while braving freezing temperatures and heavy snowfall. We must prioritize practical solutions and collective support to alleviate their suffering and help them get back to a basic level of functioning. The international community should amplify Ukrainian voices and recognize the urgency of their situation this winter. Now is the time for global solidarity to help Ukraine not only survive the winter but also pave the way for a brighter, more secure future.

Jan Willaert is the Ukraine regional director at Community Organized Relief Effort (CORE).

Liana Khorovytska is the Ukraine country director at Community Organized Relief Effort (CORE).

 

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Sanders, You might think the answer is complicated…

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Bajito
A dry wetland near the editor’s home in Cocle. The water does tend to disappear in dry season, but it has been a long time since it was dry for so long. The birds and the dogs miss this favorite splashing place of theirs. Photo by Eric Jackson.

As the father of four and the grandfather of seven,
I very much wish that I did not have to say this

by Bernie Sanders

Yes. These are crazy times.

Trump will be the Republican nominee for president and is leading in most polls.

Earlier this week, I held a hearing with major drug company CEOs that showed, as part of our dysfunctional healthcare system, that we pay by far the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs and that many Americans suffer and die because they cannot afford them.

In Gaza, thousands of Palestinian children are starving as a result of the horrific policies of Netanyahu’s right-wing government while Congress wants to give Israel $10 billion more in military aid.

Three blocks from the Capitol, in the richest country on earth, people sleep out in the streets because of a housing crisis which exists in almost every city in America.

And on and on it goes.

And, in the midst of all that and more, the American people and people throughout the world are seeing the devastating impact climate change is having on their communities and their families with their own eyes. And please understand that everything that we are seeing today will likely become worse, much worse, in the years to come.

Just take a look around at what’s happening right now in the United States and around the world, and what scientists are saying.

As you read this, Los Angeles just finished a week in which is received of record amounts of rain. There have been hundreds of mudslides, 250,000+ homes and businesses are without power and the New York Times reports that the storm has “prompted millions of residents to stay home to avoid potential hazards.”

In Chile, the country is experiencing its deadliest wildfires in over a century. More than a hundred people have died. Like most wildfires, they are likely started by humans, but it is a changing climate that allows them to spread with a ferocity not experienced before.

According to NASA, 2023 was the hottest year on record, and also “millions of people around the world experienced extreme heat, and each month from June through December set a global record for the respective month. July was the hottest month ever recorded.”

And if that wasn’t warning enough, scientists are now saying that the previous high category for storms — Category 5, a category once considered extreme — is not enough, and they want to add a new category: Category 6.

In the past, a series of climate disasters and scientific pronouncements like these might have seemed like a silly plot in a bad movie about the apocalypse. Unfortunately, however, this is not a movie. This is reality. This is what we are experiencing right in front of us.

And, again, this entire scenario will likely become worse, much, much worse if the United States, China and the rest of the world do not act together to break our dependence on fossil fuel.

But let us take a step back.

How in the world did we get to the point where the very habitability of our planet for future generations is at risk? How did we get to the point where the lives of billions of people is under enormous threat?

You might think the answer is complicated, but the truth is that it is not.

The truth is that the scientific community, for many decades, has made it crystal clear that climate change — and all the dangers it poses in terms of drought, floods, extreme weather disturbances, and disease — is the result of carbon emissions from the fossil fuel industry.

As far back as the late 1950s, over 60 years ago, physicist Edward Teller and other scientists were warning executives in the fossil fuel industry that carbon emissions were “contaminating the atmosphere” and causing a “greenhouse effect” that could eventually lead to temperature increases “sufficient to melt the icecap and submerge New York.” That’s what they were saying 60 years ago!

But it is not just the scientific community that knew …

What we are also learning is that the fossil fuel companies knew as well.

Recent news reported by The Guardian showed “The fossil fuel industry funded some of the world’s most foundational climate science as early as 1954.”

The research, funded by energy companies at the time found “The possible consequences of a changing concentration of the CO2 in the atmosphere with reference to climate, rates of photosynthesis, and rates of equilibration with carbonate of the oceans may ultimately prove of considerable significance to civilization.”

Let me repeat that — as early as 70 years ago, fossil fuel companies were beginning to understand the dangers of carbon emissions and that the impact would be of “Considerable significance to civilization … “

But there is more.

Of course there is more.

In 1975, Shell-backed research concluded that increasing atmospheric carbon concentrations could cause global temperature increases that would drive “major climatic climactic changes” and compared the dangers of burning fossil fuels to nuclear waste.

Beginning in the late 1970s, Exxon — now ExxonMobil — conducted extensive research on climate change that predicted current rising temperatures “correctly and skillfully.”

The fossil fuel companies knew.

They knew they were causing global warming and therefore threatening the very existence of the planet.

Yet, in pursuit of profit, fossil fuel executives not only refused to publicly acknowledge what they had learned but, year after year, lied about the existential threat that climate change posed for our planet.

So what happened to the CEOs who betrayed the American people and the global community? Were they fired from their jobs? Were they condemned by pundits on cable television and the editorial boards of major newspapers? Were they prosecuted? Did they go to jail for their crimes?

Nope. Not at all. Not one of them. These CEOs got rich.

It’s obscene.

So, where do we go from here?

What do we do to make sure our planet is habitable for future generations?

First – We must defeat Donald Trump. There is simply no way around just how important it is that we beat him this November and beat him badly. If Donald Trump is president again, there will be no progress on climate change.

Second – At the same time, we must elect as many progressive candidates as we possibly can who will fight to pass a Green New Deal.

Third – We must hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for its longstanding and carefully coordinated campaign to mislead consumers and discredit climate science in pursuit of massive profits.

Fourth – We must demand action from the next Congress and during President Biden’s second term that transforms our energy systems away from fossil fuels and into energy efficiency and sustainable energy.

We can do that in transportation, electricity generation, agriculture and making our buildings and appliances more energy efficient. And when we do that we not only combat climate change but we create a cleaner and healthier environment.

Fifth – We must recognize that no individual nation can solve alone for its own people. It is a global crisis. It is an issue that requires the cooperation of every nation on earth. Whether we like it or not, we are all in this together.

As the father of four and the grandfather of seven, I very much wish that I did not have to say this. But the most serious challenge facing our country and the entire world today far and away is the existential threat of climate change. That’s not just Bernie Sanders talking. That’s what the scientific community is telling us in a virtually unanimous voice.

The bad news is that it was a set of human decisions that has gotten us to this point.

The good news is that we can now make the decision to act aggressively in combating climate change and prevent irreparable damage to our country and the planet.

We cannot go far enough or be too aggressive on this issue.

We are custodians of the earth. All of us. And it would be a moral disgrace if we left to future generations a planet that was unhealthy, unsafe, and uninhabitable.

 

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Editorials: Be safe; and Let Netanyahu swim alone

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Carnival Saturday in Anton. Photo by Eric Jackson.

Come home alive

Carnival is lots of fun, but also entails plenty of risk. Think of yourself, and think of others.

Don’t get so blasted out our your mind on alcohol or some other psychotropic substance that you do something dangerous, like get behind the wheel of a car in that inebriated state. Or make yourself an obvious target for muggers or others who do not wish you well.

If you go out for daytime revelry, remember that with the big crowds all the spaces in the shade may be taken up. Plus, we are getting some record hot days, with high doses of ultraviolet radiation from the sun. You need to wear a hat. Sunscreen might be a good idea. That little folding umbrella that you can stash in your bag is mainly a dry season implement, but in the tropical sun it can be used as a parasol to give you some protection and avoid some painful burns.

So many people are drunk, and a fair percentage of these are not on their best behavior. They might say things that in other circumstances would amount to fighting words, but it’s better to ignore these things as stupid things that drunk people say. Do your utmost to avoid ending your part of the party with a fight.

Are you SO gringocentric in a certain negative sort of way that you think that you need to bring a gun with you to protect yourself at a Carnival site. Stay home.

Let us consider and thank those working, sometimes overtime, to protect us this Carnival season. Thank the cops at the entrances to the Carnival sites, there most of all to keep weapons out. Thank the Transito cops, and wish them no gruesome emergencies to attend this year. Thank the health inspectors, keeping the food sold at the stands safe and the water sprayed from the culecos clean and pure. Thank the SINAPROC lifeguards at the crowded beaches, and along with the bomberos standing by in case of some disaster. Thank the clean-up crews who will be working after everyone else has gone home.

Have a good time. Have a safe time.

 

An injured youth in Rafah. Photo from the Times of Gaza Twitter / X feed.

Cut off supplies and funds for this horror

The Netanyahu regime told residents of Gaza City that they were about to attack, that they should go to Rafah for safety. Israeli forces mercilessly bombardeg Gaza City, making health care workers and journalists special targets. With that city now in ruins, some of Netanyahu’s ministers have met with real estate speculators to talk about plans for Gaza.

Now the Netanyahu regime attacks their deceptively labeled “safe refuge.”

No doubt the Israeli forces have killed a lot of Hamas fighters among the many times that number Palestinians whose deaths they have caused. But have they really depleted the ranks of their enemies?

How many boys and girls who survived this massacre will grow up to be implacable enemies of Israel, guerrillas so hardened that the iDF will wish that they had Hamas back?

Israel has lost this war. The United States has lost face supporting it. It’s time to cut losses and rejoin humanity by leaving Netanyahu to swim alone, without American money or weapons.

 

Alice Walker, speaking at TEDxRamallah in 2011. Photo by Lazar Simeonov.

The most common way people give up their power is by thinking they don’t have any.

Alice Walker

 

Bear in mind…

 

One is left with the horrible feeling now that war settles nothing; that to win a war is as disastrous as to lose one.

Agatha Christie

 

My work is foursquare for chaos. I spend my life personally, and my work professionally, keeping the soup boiling. Gadfly is what they call you when you are no longer dangerous; I much prefer troublemaker, malcontent, desperado. I see myself as a combination of Zorro and Jiminy Cricket. My stories go out from here and raise hell. From time to time some denigrater or critic with umbrage will say of my work, ‘He only wrote that to shock.’ I smile and nod. Precisely.

Harlan Ellison

 

Let no one be willing to speak ill of the absent.

Sextus Propertius

 

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Nicaragüenses: NUESTRO ladrón

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him
Desde su cuenta de X.

Se dicen el gobierno de Ortega:

 

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¿Wappin? ¡Ya es Carnaval! / It’s Carnival now!

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KP
Karen Peralta, desde su cuenta de Instagram. / Karen Peralta, from her Instagram feed.

The playlist on THIS Friday
La lista de reproducción de ESTE viernes

Jhonathan Chávez – Baile Virtual en Hacienda Marigrys Amelia
https://youtu.be/Qfvg3uRbPQ4?si=w-b7yuT3P3PHPqhW

Kafu Banton & Rythmikal in 2021
https://youtu.be/–rKJqyU7sc?si=WwgfUVgWNcKQyWlz

Samy y Sandra Sandoval – Acuarias Amar Puerto Armuelles
https://youtu.be/D9j61o8hF8Q?si=OOS_DfobyVYHUDM6

Danny Rivera y Yomira John – Concierto Siempre Amigos
https://youtu.be/1pku4P1M7pg?si=QtK_xe4GrcmNeUGY

Nenito Vargas y Los Plumas Negras – Evolution Fest 2023
https://youtu.be/ScV4x7phi5A?si=WBfcwi5fqj0WfQ-o

Los Rabanes – Porque Te Fuiste Benito (Album Completo)
https://youtu.be/CjiAy4HFucg?si=leYID9HWEzSFy3H5

Concierto Karen Peralta y Margarita Henríquez
https://youtu.be/tbornvp4O4Y?si=FH3YZhUB3Ai7oAtM

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Jackson, A forlorn campaign

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A PRD billboard near the entrance from the Pan-American Highway to Playa Blanca plays to the annoyance of many whose routines were disrupted by road and street closures during the 2022 and 2023 strike movements. Most Panamanians sympathized with the strikers, but in May’s presidential election contest a majority is not required to win – just a plurality. The roadblock protest is a part of Panamanian political culture. An attempt to criminalize it by the Martinelli regime was not successful. Meanwhile, by making this a campaign issue Gaby Carrizo raises the subjects of the past two years’ strikes, political violence, the strip mining business and his ties to it, his behavior during times of crisis and the general economic conditions in Panama at this moment. People can turn those around, too.

Gaby turns the dismissal around – sort of

Photos and comment by Eric Jackson

The controversies leading up to and during last year’s strike coincided with Vice President José Gabriel Carrizo’s anointment as the standard bearer for the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), and followed a 2022 strike in which Gaby Carrizo was acting president while President Laurentino “Nito” Cortizo Cohen was in the United States consulting with medical specialists for his rare form of blood cancer. There arose among the ranks of striking teachers and construction workers on the barricades the dismissive Gaby, tu no vas – “Gaby, you aren’t going anywhere.” The saying caught on in wider social circles, aided by Carrizo’s goofy grin and maladroit campaign moves.

When, after the crisis, Carrizo emerged from his silence during the strike, he held a meeting in his home base of Penonome and declared that the election was shaping up as a two-front battle for the PRD, against the far left on one side and the would-be creole aristocrats popularly known as the rabiblancos – from the Panamanian Spanish word for the White-tailed Hawk – on the other side.

That formulation harks back to the days of the dictatorship that founded the PRD, when General Torrijos overthrew Arnulfo Arias and slapped down many of the privileges of the few wealthy families that dominated the Panamanian economy and on the other hand waged bloody warfare against those factions of the left that would not make peace with the dictatorship. The Moscow-line communists made their peace and accepted their patronage shares, but new left dissidents like teachers’ union activist Floyd Britton were treated much more harshly. He was snatched from the Coca-Cola Cafe in Santa Ana and imprisoned at the Coiba Island Penal Colony. On November 29, 1969 Britton was tortured to death and that date became part of the basis of the name MLN-29, the November 29th National Liberation Movement. It’s a semi-underground Marxist-Leninist political party to which a lot of this country’s labor activists, including the leaders of the SUNTRACS construction workers’ union and organizers of the CONUSI labor confederation, belong. The student organization affiliate of the party, the Revolutionary Student Federation (FER-29) is one of the main factions of campus radicals here.

A lot of history’s waters have flown beneath the bridge since the days of the military strongman who cared about Panama and cared about what people thought of him, as ruthless as he could be. Omar Torrijos is a revered figure to many Panamanians – unlike his successor Manuel Antonio Noriega, who led the country to disaster. Nostalgia for what was can be a tricky thing, but maybe not so much when a third of the vote could make somebody president in an eight-way race.

The cycles of Panamanian electoral politics, the habit of throwing the party that holds that special chair at Palacio de las Garzas out of the presidency in the next election, also work against Carrizo. So the “no vas” dismissal has caught on. Gaby has thus decided to respond and reformulate. “You’re not going to be shut in,” he promises, promising a law against the roadblock protests.

Variations on the theme include a billboard in Penonome proclaiming that you’re not going to see kids dropping out of school because there will be suitable classrooms. As if it’s all a matter of brick and mortar, and not a matter of classrooms with teachers who have been paid on time. But in both 2022 and 2023 teachers’ unions walked our because payment for many of their members was months in arrears.

Another variation, on a hillside in Arraijan Gaby promised passersby that you’re not going to receive less than $350 a month. Oh really? He’s going to establish a guaranteed income for the roughly half of economically active Panamanians working in the informal economy?

moouseketeers
It’s a rough economy that prompts people to do this at a place where the traffic jams up in La Chorrera in order to put food on their table.

At a glance, and those glances do vary from place to place in the country, the national economy is a mess. Yes, blame assignment is part of the game. The COVID epidemic. The worldwide inflation caused when the Ukraine War interfered with established grain supply arrangements. The drought. The “wrong kind” of immigrants. Kids these days. Yadda yadda yadda.

Say what they may, it’s a bad economy for those running for re-election. Should we get mean about it? This government has blown a great deal of money on “decentralization” projects and has relatively little to show for the money, and meanwhile can’t pay its bills on time and faces an enormous looming debt crisis.

A lot can change in a little under three months, but it appears that Panamanians have had enough of the PRD for a while. Leave it to Gaby to be holding the bag.

watermelon man
Somehow we will get by. Panamanians always have.
 

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Jackson, The Chinese competition

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Chinese industry makes a move here

photos and comment by Eric Jackson

Rather quickly, starting last year, a major and conglomerated move by several Chinese industrial brands has announced its presence around Panama. Total tool stores, Carbone machine tools, Dongfeng automobiles and so on, and their outdoor advertisements, have become well nigh ubiquitous.

Do quality and price match the billing? That will be seen over time.

Should economic apparatchiki at the American Embassy be alarmed? They would be foolish not to take notice, but it’s not as if US industry has all of a sudden faced strong opposition. Does Dongfeng grab a share of the Panamanian automotive market? Like Japan’s Toyota, South Korea’s Hyundai, other Asian manufacturers and various European brands before them? But if Panama is neither the US “back yard” nor the captive market of a country that does not effectively protect its own market, it is one more battleground in a global rivalry between the United States and China.

Due largely to Chinese abuses in decades past and the critical importance of the Internet – originally a US military project – to the US economy and government communications, the United States launched some devastating attacks on China’s Huawei technology company. This is probably why Panama does not have a Huawei 5G Internet network, even if the Americans and their advanced allies really don’t have a viable competitor in place. And still, Huawei does sell things in Panama.

It’s also not as if, as they get their feet on the ground and learn the economic lay of the land in Panama, Donfeng has no new US competition. At the El Boulevard shopping center on Penonome’s west side, there’s a new Chevrolet dealership. Is this an opening move for General Motors to fight for the electric car market that’s expected to emerge to dominance? But then, consult the union brothers and sisters of the United Auto Workers about how much of the content of GM products are union-made in the USA. They make it their business to keep track of such things and will add their caveats if and when cars with imported parts that are assembled in the United States – or are assembled in Mexico to bear the brand of a US-based multinational corporation – get billed as US products.

The Chinese competition is here. These companies come to a country with a long-established – since the late 1840s – ethnic Chinese community, a community that has faced some substantial Panamanian racism, including a short-lived move in 1941 to strip all Panamanians of Chinese ancestry of their citizenship. There’s no call for Cold War paranoia, nor for appeals to base prejudices, but the rivalries and capabilities of global giants are facts that Panama must take into account.

Dongfeng
These low-quality photos were taken from a moving bus on a ride between Panama City and the foot of the foothills in Cocle.
 

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Jackson, As the campaign gets underway…

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Anton mayor's race
Opening moves in the election campaign – but actually they have been ongoing. The two ladies on the park bench in Anton? Look past them. You see road construction equipment in the background, and have been seeing a lot of public works ongoing in a great many places where there is a PRD representante, mayor or legislator. What did that party’s astute founder say about more consultation means fewer mistakes? In some places you see people working on projects for which nobody asked, often at a glance money spent unwisely. But then other local politicians with their shares out of the “decentralization” pork barrel may not be in the habit of well-attended public hearings but on the other hand put priority on things that their constituents had been demanding. Not just in Panama, there is this old habit of signs with public officials’ names on them at the sites of public works. But the better politicians act with more subtlety, just letting the voters see that work is being done as the time to vote approaches. Photo by Eric Jackson.

As a MOST unusual campaign gets underway…

by Eric Jackson

IF you are one to generically confuse public opinion polls with prophecy, you really ought to learn some more political science. Even 90 days out, even in Panama’s “newspaper of record.”

On Monday, February 6, La Prensa published the first major “post-Martinelli” survey, which was taken by the rather obscure firm of Mercadeo Planificado SA between January 26 and February 2, with in-person interviews around the country of 1,200 adult citizens. Ricardo Martinelli’s precise status on or off the ballot was and is still not entirely clear, but gears are in motion and it appears that he won’t be on the ballot and the running mate on his signature RM party’s ticket, José Raúl Mulino, will stand in his place. With that presumption taken as a given, the poll sort of suggested a Panamanian turn toward fascism, far-right legislator running as an independent Zulay Rodríguez vaulting from way back in the pack in prior surveys into the leading position – at 14 points. The rankings that La Prensa published on its front page went like this:

Zulay Rodríguez – 14%
Ricardo Lombana – 9%
Martín Torrijos – 9%
Rómulo Roux – 8%
José Raúl Mulino – 6%
José Gabriel Carrizo – 4%
Maribel Gordón – 1%
Melitón Arrocha – 1%
Don’t know – 17%
None of the above – 32%

So let’s apply a bit of history and a bit of political science here. For starters, opinion polls at their best are “snapshots in time,” subject to revisions small or great. Usually in the week or so before the vote there is a polarization in which supporters of candidates without a chance and those truly undecided break toward two front-runners. Here, and across Latin America, what “undecided,” “none of the above” or “don’t know” generally means is that the potential voter saying that doesn’t want anybody to know – not even in a promised-to-be-confidential interview with a polling company worker – does not support the candidate of the party. Those votes will fragment among the alternative candidates, abstention, protest votes and blank or spoiled ballots, but usually they polarize toward one of the leading candidates who is not of the ruling party.

(In this case that’s the Democratic Revolutionary Party or PRD, but the complexity this year is that Zulay sits in the National Assembly as a PRD deputy and Martín is the son of the PRD’s founder, General Omar Torrijos, and served a term as president elected on the PRD ticket. So does the antipathy toward the PRD fall entirely on Gaby, or does it constrain the possibilities for Martín and Zulay as well?)

Zulay, with her preaching of hatred for everybody and everything arguably foreign, her gay-bashing and her rants against the bankers – whom she doesn’t specifically identify as Jewish like many fascists tend to do – the next president? It could happen. Panama has been down that road before, leading to a US-instigated coup on the eve of US entry into World War II to remove one of Hitler’s friends as our president. A few months earlier that Nazi sympathizer, Dr. Arnulto Arias, had promulgated a constitution stripping all Panamanians of non-Hispanic Afro-Caribbean, Asian or Middle Eastern descent or of nonwhite African origin of their citizenship and franchise. We had the author of an infamous Health Ministry pamphlet and former ambassador to Mussolini’s Italy in the presidential chair. After the war he remained popular, having been elected president but overthrown by coups d’etat or kept out of office by fraud several times. Some of the antipathy among Jews – Ashkenazim got to keep their citizenship but Sephardim lost theirs – remain a social phenomenon to this day.

Jackboots goose-stepping through Plaza Catedral? It’s possible, depending on whether Zulay’s 14% is a platform or a ceiling. But beyond her, a statistical tie among Lombana, Torrijos, and Roux, with Mulino and Carrizo lagging a little behind and almost half not stating a preference at this time. It’s quite the unusual race.

 

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